Government Mentioned Less Often
A Gallup question shows rising concern about unemployment, but that's mostly because the number one concern of late 2013 Washington dysfunction has faded.
The demographic composition of off year elections is just different enough to create a big challenge for Democrats. And are you a political or data scientist ready to help us put a dent into our corner of the universe? Have park lane jewelry we got a job for you. This is HuffPollster for Tuesday, February 18, 2014.
UNEMPLOYMENT RISES AS CONCERN On an open ended question, Gallup finds an increase in the percentage mentioning unemployment or jobs since October (from 12 to 23 percent). The question asks for "the most important problem facing this country today," so the rise in concern about jobs occurs, in part, because of a decline over the same period of the percentage mentioning the government or politicians (from 33 to 18 percent). Rebecca Riffkin: "Prior to last fall, either jobs or the economy had led the 'most important problem' list going back to February 2008, and these two have regained their top spots in the Feb. 6 9 poll. Healthcare continues to rank among the top problems, with 15% naming it, unchanged from January." However, mentions of healthcare have also declined pandora beads for bracelets slightly (from 19 to 15 percent) since November. "Now that the shutdown is over and the government has successfully passed a budget and avoided another debt ceiling shutdown, Americans appear to have shifted their focus away from the government and back to the still relatively weak job market." pandora charms for children [Gallup]
Will Congress gain ground too? Gallup Editor in Chief Frank Newport: "[W]e have a mini breakthrough from the public's viewpoint. This February update came prior to the actual votes this past week in Congress, so they were not a proximate cause. But clearly there has been less posturing, grandstanding, and talk about the need to shut down government in order to call attention to the need to save it. This chart shows the average differences between presidential year turnout and midterm turnout for the last three cycles. None of these may look like huge differences at first glance, ranging from 1 to 6 points, but in a big country a few percent adds up to millions of votes; and in a closely divided one, that counts a lot." Salvanto also sees some trends since 2002 that add up to "potentially good news: for Democrats: "Over the last three cycles the midterm electorate has, as it did in presidential years, gotten more diverse: slightly more African American, and higher relative Hispanic turnout nationwide. However, it has also gotten a little older (21 percent in 2010 up from 18 percent in 2002) and the percent of voters under 30 has only gone up a smidge. All told, probably a mixed bag for Democrats." [CBS News]
PANDORA MODELING VOTE CHOICE? Elizabeth Dwoskin: "Next time you listen to a Bob Marley channel on Pandora Media Inc., the Internet radio service may peg you as likely to vote for a Democrat. The Oakland, Calif., company plans to roll out a new advertising service next week that would enable candidates and political organizations to target the majority of its 73 million active monthly Pandora listeners based on its sense of their political leanings.
How can it do this? The company matches election results with subscribers' musical preferences by ZIP Code. Then, it labels individual users based on their musical tastes and whether those artists are more frequently listened to in Democratic or Republican areas. Pandora then reviews election results for that county, Mr. Krawczyk said. But that doesn't get you a WSJ article. Faith Driven Consumers has been tracking the viability of major Hollywood films courting faith based audiences this year." The question they asked?: "As a Faith Driven Consumer, are you satisfied with a Biblically themed movie designed to appeal to you which replaces the Bible's core message with one created by Hollywood?"
"Possibly the most ridiculous survey question/data of all time," tweets political scientist Brendan Nyhan. bureau, to work on development and improvement of our poll tracking models and political pandora jewelry beads forecasts. in political science, economics or the social sciences or comparable high level training or experience,
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TUESDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
One in four Americans believes the Sun goes around the Earth. [NPR]
Two new polls find Anthony Brown leading Doug Gansler in the Democratic primary for Governor of Maryland.
[WaPost, Baltimore Sun]
A new poll of Hawaii shows competitive Democratic primaries for Senate and governor and shows Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) trailing his Republican opponent. [News Now, Star Advertiser, Politico].
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