Iraq in state of anarchy
The non stop torrent of bomb blasts, shootings, kidnappings and US military reprisals in Iraq clearly shows the country is in a state of anarchy and seriously risks becoming a failed state similar to warlord run Somalia, analysts say.
Recent attacks, including a bomb explosion outside the main police headquarters in Baghdad yesterday that killed at least 47 people, a wave of blasts and battles on Sunday that claimed at least 45 other lives, and US air strikes in Fallujah that killed 15, many of them civilians, have reinforced that impression, they say.
The abductions of foreigners in past weeks, among them two French journalists, two Italian women aid workers, and possibly two Australian and two East Asian security guards, have ratcheted up concerns.
An Islamic website showed grisly footage of masked militants slitting the throat of a Turkish hostage and yesterday another hostage, a Jordanian truck driver, was shown in another video with a threat that he would be killed unless his employer pulled out of the country.
"The gates of hell are open in Iraq," Arab League chief Amr Mussa said yesterday.
"We have opened a Pandora's box in Iraq that we are unable to close," French President Jacques Chirac said on Monday at a Madrid summit with Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder."There is a risk of a Somalia isation of Iraq," said Hasni Abidi, an Algerian analyst who had just best prices on pandora charms returned to Geneva from a mission in Iraq for the Study and Research Centre for the Arab and Mediterranean World.
"Each political party has its own armed militia, the country is in the hands of gangs," he said, adding that the so called "Green Zone" in Baghdad a highly fortified area accommodating the US embassy and the provisional Iraqi government showed that "the transfer of sovereignty was illusory".
Toppling Saddam Hussein, who held an iron grip over Iraq for three decades through brutal oppression buy pandora beads of the population, has created a situation where "international terrorism" has taken root and neighbouring countries have no incentive to encourage stability, Abidi said.
For a British expert, Michael Codner, there is a real "risk of proliferation of groups with different leaderships" staking their claims in Iraq, even if the generally educated middle class in the country might stop a scenario where tribal warlords hold sway.
Mark Heller, an analyst with Israel's Jaffee Centre for Strategic Studies, said the "Pandora's Box" Chirac spoke of was opened in the 1920s, when Britain created the state of Iraq.
Today, though, "we have a situation of anarchy", he said, with the only other options now being "brutal repression" or some sort of power sharing arrangement between the Sunnis, Shi'ites and Kurds.
Daniel Neep, an analyst at Britain's Royal United Services Institute, said: "Every time things happen in Iraq, the immediate reaction is to say that things are getting worse. In fact the situation is awful all the time, with small variations (in the intensity of violence)."
US military efforts to try to regain control over areas it has lost to insurgents are being hampered by Iraqi policemen becoming targets and the militants drawing upon a general sense of frustration among Iraqis and, in some cases, foreign fighters trying to turn the conflict into a wider ideological struggle, he said.
To make matters worse, the United States is trying to impose a quick solution by force in time for its own November presidential elections in which the issue of Iraq looms large, Neep said.
"The entire notion that we can really influence what happens in Iraq in a timetable dictated by sell pandora charms the American presidential election in November is simply absurd. One of the reasons why things have been pandora build your own bracelet going wrong is that the Americans have been trying to impose a timetable which doesn't bear any relevance to what's happening on the ground in Iraq," he said.
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