Greece is the pantomime horse
Despite the fact that joining the euro was always seen as a one way ticket, cracks are starting to show in the resolve of Germany and France to hold the eurozone together at all costs.
Economists and currency experts were even starting to talk about Greece exiting the euro club before the end of the year. But since the Greeks have now formed a national unity government, that prospect could be delayed.
However, Jeremy Cook, chief economist at World First, says: will not allow Greece to drag the eurozone much lower. While no provisions have been made for a country to leave the eurozone, I am sure that the various legal and constitutional experts will be able to fudge a way for it to be made a reality, much like they have been able to run roughshod over the rules to allow bail outs for various countries.
Everyone is on tenterhooks waiting to see if the Greeks will commit to the bail out plan and bring in severe austerity measures or simply throw its hands up in the air, declare itself bankrupt and leave the euro.
French and Germans are intent on Greece choosing the first option, demonstrating solidarity in the eurozone and steadying markets which have remained curiously patient in light of such ongoing turmoil, says Adam Jordan, senior dealer at Moneycorp.
But it was Merkel herself who opened the Pandora box to the possibility of Greece dumping pandora jewelry charms for bracelet the euro when she said at last week G20 meeting that was not a given
Only a month or so ago, this would have been unthinkable.
As pandora sydney chief economist Simon Smith of FxPro says: week was notable because in the midst of the Greek referendum crisis, Germany and France did acknowledge that Greece was facing a choice of whether to be in or out of the eurozone. This was a monumental change, because leaders have always presented the monetary union as irrevocable. Once you in, you in. But that of course has been part of the problem. Without any ultimate sanction and with other measures having been flouted (principally the growth and stability pact), countries knew that they would be rescued, rather than let go.
With international leaders and in particular the Chinese refusing to help shore up the EFSF, the headache that is Italy becomes monumental. Its borrowing costs are already reaching the dangerous levels that triggered similar calls for a bail out from Portugal and Ireland.
"The real concern is for Italy, whose bond yields reached a record high on Monday, notes Nick Ryder of Smart Currency Exchange. are deserting Italian bonds at a gathering pace. pandora braclet Beyond Italy it is hard to assess what the damage will be, but something needs to be done about the ease with which bond markets can attack a country borrowing costs especially given that the European Central Bank could potentially stop buying Italian bonds if its austerity measures have not been met.
Berlusconi response has been almost childlike citing full restaurants and planes as evidence that the Italian economy is fine and using Facebook to announce that he hasn resigned.
World First Cook puts the blame at Berlusconi door, saying sizeable proportion of the increase of Italian borrowing costs will have been down to the political farce that his government has become. Berlusconi bungling has proved to be the icing on this foul tasting cake
Given that Europe third largest economy and pandora ship charm guarantor of 20 per cent of the EFSF is officially in recession, his slender grasp on the severity of the problem has not reassured markets.
No wonder Chris Towner, director of FX advisory services at HiFX likens the eurozone to a circus with Greece as the main event.
problem, though, with this particular circus, he says, that nobody quite knows who is the ringmaster. Is it the ECB, IMF, Merkel, Merkel and Sarkozy, Obama or a fudge of all these together? Not only does Europe need direction but it also needs leadership.
The single currency crisis is overshadowing other global events with currencies reacting to events being played out on the Continent. Sterling is currently benefitting, as well as the traditional shelters of the US dollar and Japanese yen.
But there is still plenty of volatility to be found.
times when it appears that leaders are demonstrating a sense of conviction and presenting a viable plan for the future, says Moneycorp Jordan, markets have shifted towards riskier investments, which have seen the Antipodean currencies in particular gain strength. When uncertainty becomes prolonged, and the markets begin to wobble, investors head straight back to the greenback, the dollar being the favoured currency of choice during times of risk aversion.
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